Russia Ukraine War - STOCK MARKET CRASH Coming ?

Hi this is V.P.Bhaskar and welcome to this special blog where I’m going to write about Russia - Ukraine war the talk of the town so even on Friday until afternoon the US markets were okay but then suddenly it fell more than 500 point just because of this news Russia can enter Ukraine at any point of time ......

Actually this news has been there for the last many months but now it's getting into their climax so first let us try to understand what is the actual things about 30-40 years before so Russia was one country then it is disintegrated into many smaller countries and Ukraine is one of demand why Ukraine takes the center stage because the Ukraine is exactly in between Russia and Europe so Ukraine has a long dilemma whether to align with Russia or to align with Europe Ukraine on the right side it's Russia left side is euro and on north side it is Belarus and another disintegrated country,

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but that is pro-Russia and south it is a black sea so what happened there is an organization called natto that is north atlantic treaty organization so who are the members of all the european countries plus America so that's just like a cooperation among all the European so the Ukraine wanted to be a part of nato and if you want to become a part of nato you have to just submit an application which is called membership action plan so they have already submitted but what happened in 2010,

the pro-Russian leader took the power in Ukraine so he cancelled it then again what happened in 2013-14 there were a lot of protests in Ukraine so against Russia so this leader was thrown out and he had to leave the country then another leader came and he has become pro-european leader and the Russia was not happy about this and what Russia did so there is apeninsula region peninsula region means a three side sea and one side the land so there's a big portion so Russia actually you entered into crime and they have unexpected Russia has taken over premium so that is on the southern side so now southern tip of Ukraine that is crime plus the dead sea so they all in control of Russia,

even on the eastern sides of Russia has been helping the rebels so these rebels were actually fighting against Ukraine government for a longtime this has been going on for the last eight ten years and it's open secret that Russia helping demand you you know they supply arms and ammunitions air to a land-to-air missile and all those things so you may remember sometimes in 2014 on one malaysian airlines a commercial airlines was shot by the Ukraine rebels and using the Russian supply surface to air missile so this is not a new news but it has been a very old news but now,

what is the issue now Russia somehow wants Ukraine to be pro-Russia and Russia wants an assurance from Ukraine that Ukraine will never become a member of nato so Russia is doing all kinds of tactics helping the rivers on the eastern side you know like right now they moved about one lakh plus troops on the borders of Ukraine and then the northern border of Ukraine it's belarus which is a friendly country of Russia so Russia in collaboration with the belarus and doing a lot of exercises in the northern border of Ukraine and this creates more fear that's because the capital of Ukraine is actually towards the northern end so from belarus accessing capital of Ukraine is very easy it's not so easy to reach capital from the eastern side from Russia and now there are news reports you know so Russia is supplying the arms and ammunitions and even they are supplying the medical supplies you know medical equipments,

and supplies even the blood is being supplied so this creates a suspicion that you know Russia may enter Ukraine at any times the u.s intelligence agencies said that Russia can enter Ukraine any time within next one week by 20th of February and although Russia has been denying it Russia says no we have no plan to enter but the thing is if they have no plan to enter why should they deploy so much of forces on the border of Ukraine and then even the Ukraine government just want peace within the country so they are also saying that you know Russia may not invade but the European and u.s they think that so Russia will enter upgrade so this is the historical background of the problem.

let us come back to our stock markets from stock market point of view some people argue like this and US has lot of local problems high inflation and so on you know so you know you if somewhere war is keep ongoing on you know the us will benefit because they are the largest supplier of arms and ammunitions in the world then on the other hand people say you know ,

Russia is the largest one of the largest producer of oil so therefore you know so if this kind of pressure on Ukraine you know there may be a cost but that cost will be well compensated by increasing the crude oil prices and bent crude which hit a low of 26 something and then from there it has shot up now to 95 dollar people say now it will be going to even one hundred dollars it's about seven eight year high so although there are so many hypothesis going on but from the stock market perspective so how we are going to see this number one there are investors and there are traders so investors,

  I can tell you absolutely nothing to worry and because as I have been saying you Lehman brother collapse came coronavirus came you know trump won in 2016 demonetization came in India so every two years there will always be some problem from 2008 until now every two year I can give you some problems 2008 Lehman brother collapse 2011 Greece on the verge of bankruptcy 2013 tapper tantrum 2015 china  value currency 2016 demonetization 2017 exit 2018 inflation late fall in US 2020 coronavirus and now 2022 you huge inflation in US and now this problem but a stock market you know in the short term may be going up and down but in the long term indian market story is intact so that is one thing but coming back to traders so there is nothing to worry too much,

there may be some knee jerk reaction and markets I know in the last one year have shot up particularly  stocks all have shot up more than 100 percent so definitely they'll be coming  underselling pressure and people need a reason to book the profits so what happens if you really want to know what may happen in the next few months you have to go and look back at 2014 when Russia actually entered into Ukraine and then captured the crime aright and you look at the 2014 chart so stock markets did not fall any where in the world even in india 2014 the markets continued to move higher that's because the previous year and because of tamper tantrum nifty has already fallen 20 percent and then 2014 this Russia entering crime and then taking over crime and then helping the eastern rivers you know nothing was in the market so the markets the most it was corrected only three to four percent and not more than that and then markets continue to rallys on just like you 2013,

this u.s inflation fair has already made some kind of a correction in the market and now this you Ukraine news is coming and now it is getting more corrected so i don't think that so we will be correcting you more for this Ukraine news and another thing you the Russian president will know clearly the economic problems of any such thing happens so as long as the fear is there then only the group prices will be higher and once the crisis is over whether the outcome is good or bad the crude oil will fall and that will not benefit,

I think this Russia may continue to do this pressure tactics and they may not enter Ukraine and then in the last week you know european countries and some Asian countries and America also they were too much worried about this you possibility of a war they asked their citizens to leave their country US asking their citizens to get out of both Ukraine and stock market so there will always be knee jerk reaction short-term panic you know and then once the market stabilize so the markets will be going higher but again as i told you many times ,

                                

if the stock market has hugely performed in one particular year the following year performance has never been very good okay so we can be bullish but not to bullish so last time when it was of the view that nifty will betrading between 15000 and 21000 for the entire 2022 now it become a little bit bearish and now it set my target as 15000 on the downside and 20000 on the higher side and 20000 on the higher side is not very bullish because last october nifty reached 18600 from there to 20000 is is only about 78 percent and from last october to this December you know it's about 15 months so for 15.78 you know that's actually not a good sign so please don't be panic and stock market rewards people with patience and however if you are a trader it is time to look for the hedge .