Hi this is V.P.Bhaskar and welcome to this special blog where I’m going to write about Russia - Ukraine war the talk of the town so even on Friday until afternoon the US markets were okay but then suddenly it fell more than 500 point just because of this news Russia can enter Ukraine at any point of time ......
Actually this news has been there for the last many months but now it's getting into their climax so first let us try to understand what is the actual things about 30-40 years before so Russia was one country then it is disintegrated into many smaller countries and Ukraine is one of demand why Ukraine takes the center stage because the Ukraine is exactly in between Russia and Europe so Ukraine has a long dilemma whether to align with Russia or to align with Europe Ukraine on the right side it's Russia left side is euro and on north side it is Belarus and another disintegrated country,
but that is pro-Russia and south it is a black sea so what happened there is an organization called natto that is north atlantic treaty organization so who are the members of all the european countries plus America so that's just like a cooperation among all the European so the Ukraine wanted to be a part of nato and if you want to become a part of nato you have to just submit an application which is called membership action plan so they have already submitted but what happened in 2010,
the pro-Russian leader took the power in Ukraine so he cancelled it then again what happened in 2013-14 there were a lot of protests in Ukraine so against Russia so this leader was thrown out and he had to leave the country then another leader came and he has become pro-european leader and the Russia was not happy about this and what Russia did so there is apeninsula region peninsula region means a three side sea and one side the land so there's a big portion so Russia actually you entered into crime and they have unexpected Russia has taken over premium so that is on the southern side so now southern tip of Ukraine that is crime plus the dead sea so they all in control of Russia,
even on the eastern sides of Russia has been helping the rebels so these rebels were actually fighting against Ukraine government for a longtime this has been going on for the last eight ten years and it's open secret that Russia helping demand you you know they supply arms and ammunitions air to a land-to-air missile and all those things so you may remember sometimes in 2014 on one malaysian airlines a commercial airlines was shot by the Ukraine rebels and using the Russian supply surface to air missile so this is not a new news but it has been a very old news but now,
what is the issue now Russia somehow wants Ukraine to be pro-Russia and Russia wants an assurance from Ukraine that Ukraine will never become a member of nato so Russia is doing all kinds of tactics helping the rivers on the eastern side you know like right now they moved about one lakh plus troops on the borders of Ukraine and then the northern border of Ukraine it's belarus which is a friendly country of Russia so Russia in collaboration with the belarus and doing a lot of exercises in the northern border of Ukraine and this creates more fear that's because the capital of Ukraine is actually towards the northern end so from belarus accessing capital of Ukraine is very easy it's not so easy to reach capital from the eastern side from Russia and now there are news reports you know so Russia is supplying the arms and ammunitions and even they are supplying the medical supplies you know medical equipments,
let us come back to our stock markets from stock market point of view some people argue like this and US has lot of local problems high inflation and so on you know so you know you if somewhere war is keep ongoing on you know the us will benefit because they are the largest supplier of arms and ammunitions in the world then on the other hand people say you know ,
Russia is the largest one of the largest producer of oil so therefore you know so if this kind of pressure on Ukraine you know there may be a cost but that cost will be well compensated by increasing the crude oil prices and bent crude which hit a low of 26 something and then from there it has shot up now to 95 dollar people say now it will be going to even one hundred dollars it's about seven eight year high so although there are so many hypothesis going on but from the stock market perspective so how we are going to see this number one there are investors and there are traders so investors,
I can tell you absolutely nothing to worry and because as I have been saying you Lehman brother collapse came coronavirus came you know trump won in 2016 demonetization came in India so every two years there will always be some problem from 2008 until now every two year I can give you some problems 2008 Lehman brother collapse 2011 Greece on the verge of bankruptcy 2013 tapper tantrum 2015 china value currency 2016 demonetization 2017 exit 2018 inflation late fall in US 2020 coronavirus and now 2022 you huge inflation in US and now this problem but a stock market you know in the short term may be going up and down but in the long term indian market story is intact so that is one thing but coming back to traders so there is nothing to worry too much,
there may be some knee jerk reaction and markets I know in the last one year have shot up particularly stocks all have shot up more than 100 percent so definitely they'll be coming underselling pressure and people need a reason to book the profits so what happens if you really want to know what may happen in the next few months you have to go and look back at 2014 when Russia actually entered into Ukraine and then captured the crime aright and you look at the 2014 chart so stock markets did not fall any where in the world even in india 2014 the markets continued to move higher that's because the previous year and because of tamper tantrum nifty has already fallen 20 percent and then 2014 this Russia entering crime and then taking over crime and then helping the eastern rivers you know nothing was in the market so the markets the most it was corrected only three to four percent and not more than that and then markets continue to rallys on just like you 2013,
I think this Russia may continue to do this pressure tactics and they may not enter Ukraine and then in the last week you know european countries and some Asian countries and America also they were too much worried about this you possibility of a war they asked their citizens to leave their country US asking their citizens to get out of both Ukraine and stock market so there will always be knee jerk reaction short-term panic you know and then once the market stabilize so the markets will be going higher but again as i told you many times ,
5 Comments
Bahut hi galat ho raha hau bhaiwo Ukraine k sath kbhi bhi hmla bol di Russ wala
ReplyDeleteBro .. Hindi me v publish krte ho. Kahi pr ??
ReplyDeleteEk no. ved , keywords Trend samjhta h , ye trending topic h russia-ukraine war ho v sakta h sahi h 3-4 article published krdiyo..
ReplyDeleteAur khaahai aajkal bhai
ReplyDeleteInteresting stuff to read. Keep it up.
SBI share price
Tata Steel Share Price
ITC Share Price
DLF share price
HDFC bank share price
Good strategy for creating backlinks 😉
Delete